Sunday, May 31, 2020

2020 Draft

1. PHI, Barry Rayburn OF
2. PHO Bruce Long 2B
3. LA Ken Caffey P
4. ORL Brandon Manley P
5. HAW Dan Phillips, P
6. MAR Jake Price, P
7. CHA Malcolm Sherman, P
8. GD Ernest Stevens, P
9. CLE Kelala Taree, P
10. TOR Earl Hatcher, CF
11. BAL Clayton Paul, CF
12. NYK David Yates, CF
13. DET Antonio Marrero, P
14. TOL Jose Perez, P
15. TEX Javier Munoz, P
16. LOU Melvin Walton, SS
17. LV Jon Henderson, P
18. BA Tom Kinney, P
19. SPR Bill Dooley, P
20. UTAH Conner Smallwood, CF
21. ALA Matt Miller, P
22. HOL Doug Harper, P
23. DEN Jeffrey Curry, P
24. POR Thomas Coleman, CF
25. BOS Corey Courtney, P
26. STL Marc Valentine, P
27. CHI Rob McCullough, P
28. MIA Adam Richardson, CF
29. FLA Jeff Montes P
30. NYC Ed Badger CF
31. BAL Jason Lynch 1B
32. DET Alonso Romo P
33. LV Johnny Woods OF
34. CHI Kevin Ellis OF

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Draft Prospects - outfield

Earl Hatcher, HS

A 17 year old lefty hitter from California.  Not a big guy at 6-1, 165 but hits with surprising power.  Has an uppercut swing and works the strike zone.  Good speed and range in the field. His arm is a tick above average.

Barry Rayburn, College

Bobby's kid, he has a blend of power and speed to possibly join his father in the 30-30 club, maybe even the 40-40.  He's the younger of the two Rayburn boys, his older brother Sean turned away from baseball after a traumatic kidnapping when he was young, by a deranged fan of Bobby's. Barry is a lefty batter and has elite mastery of the strike zone. He can hit, hit for power, cover ground in the outfield, and steal bases.  The only tool that is not a plus is his throwing arm.  Barry was born when his father was literally off the planet - playing an away game in Mars for the Miami Stars.  He plays with a chip on his shoulder, attributed in varying degrees to his brother's trauma, his father being away due to the APBA schedule, and frequent address changes (Bobby played for 9 teams in a 17 year career.)  He channels his anger towards dominating on the field, but some see the potential for the dark side within him and warn that he must be kept away from the Sith.

Conner Smallwood, College

One of the older players in the draft, a 23 year old college senior, Smallwood comes from French Canada and reminds some of Larry Walker. His best tool is his well above average power, but he can do it all - hit, control the strike zone, run, field, and throw.  Only drawback is he might not have as much room for development.

Thomas Coleman, College

A tall righty batter from Iowa, Coleman has tremendous power.  There is swing and miss in his game, don't expect him to hit for a high average. He runs well, has a strong throwing arm, and can play all 3 outfield positions.

Clayton Paul, HS

Big time power potential with questionable contact skills.  He has solid outfield skills and a strong arm but will likely have to settle into a corner as his speed is below average.

Adam Richardson, HS

A 17 year old from Washington state, Adam is a line drive hitter who excels at making contact, hitting .518 as a senior. His speed is above average, arm is strong, and he plays a solid defensive game. Does not walk often as he puts the ball in play early in the count.  Not a great power hitter, but could develop average power over time.

Francisco Rubio, College

Senior from Missouri State. Does not have a standout tool but does everything well.  Should be able to handle all 3 outfield spots.  Though he runs well he is not a good baserunner and often makes mistakes.  Does not read pitchers well or get good jumps in steal attempts.  Power is his best tool and he could end up hitting 25-30 homers per year.

Johnny Woods, College

Senior from Florida State, Woods is a big guy (6-5) with tremendous raw power. He'll take a walk, does not project to hit for high averages.  Speed is below average and arm is not that great, so likely will end up in left field.

David Yates, College

A teammate of Woods at Florida State, Yates hits for good power and has average or better skills across the board.  Enough speed for center, enough arm for right.  He has even tried a bit at third base and could be playable there, though he seems a better fit for the outfield.

Ed Badger, College

Senior from Vanderbilt, Badger has well above average speed and solid skills across the board. He has above average power potential and is a sure handed center fielder who reads the ball well off the bat.

Riley Bond, College

Top level speed puts pressure on opponents. plays well above average defense, has a strong arm, and will take a walk.  Could be a top of the order hitter with enough power in the bat to keep pitchers honest.

Culley Clark, College

A plus defensive center fielder with top of the line speed. As he develops expect above average power to emerge.

Jonathan Duncan, College

Few major leaguers can match his outstanding speed.  Also has a tremendous throwing arm.  Has above average power potential, but making contact can be a struggle.

R.J. Lauritzen, College

Senior from Delaware State, has an extreme rake and take approach at the plate that leads to the 3 true outcomes - walks, homers, and strikeouts. Extremely fast and a good baserunner, he can also surprise you by dropping down a bunt to beat the shift. Good range in the field but a below average arm could limit him to left field.

Nathan Lough, College

A huge (6-6, 220) power hitter who has better than expected contact ability.  Also has a strong arm and could fit in right, but his speed is below average and given his size, will probably get worse.

Albert Moore, HS

Sweet swinging line drive machine with a good idea of the strike zone.  Speed is a bit above average though his base running is raw.  Decent range in the field, but arm is well below average, which might limit him to first base. 

Ray Murray, HS

High schooler from Utah, Murray combines excellent hitting skills with above average power potential. Speed and arm rate a tick above average, and should be a solid defender in any outfield spot.

Koryusai Naito, College

Born in Japan but move to the US as a child, and played baseball at Vanderbilt.  No single skill stands out but the whole package should be a solid player, he is at least average in hitting, power, speed, throwing, and defense. Loves the game and is the first one to the ballpark and last to leave.

Clyde Olsen, Junior College

Above average hitter with plus power and a good feel for the strike zone. Runs well and has a tremendous throwing arm, but his routes in the outfield need a lot of work.

Dennis Shepard, HS
Should unleash tremendous raw power as he grows into his frame, runs well, and has a plus arm.  His plate discipline is raw and needs a lot of work.

Christian Walker, College

As a hitter he makes decent contact but doesn't hit with much authority. Outstanding speed and covers plenty of ground in center field. A future gold glove candidate. Arm is good, and he is an excellent base stealer.


Sunday, May 24, 2020

OOTP hitters face extreme velocity

The game reports don't directly allow us to see what the average velocity is, but there is a way to estimate:

Take the listed velocity range for each pitcher.  For Silveran Kanan Bonis, this is 99-101.  Take the mid point, in this case 100.  Weight that by his total batters faced.  Repeat for every pitcher in the league and we get:

AVG Fastball speed = 93.8

That is even higher than MLB, which had an average fastball speed of 93.1 in 2019. MLB velocity was up from 91.2 in 2007, the first year pitch f/x data was available.

Historically, fastballs averaged 88.9 in 2002, as reported by Fangraphs.  The source of this data is STATS Inc., presumably from scorers recording this from the velocity shown on game broadcasts.

In 1983, the average fastball was 88.7 MPH, as estimated using a Scouting Report book published before the 1984 season.

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Draft preview - Shortstops

David Walter

College junior from Florida A&M. Should control the strike zone. Has the strength to put a charge into the ball.  Quality defensive shortstop, above average range and arm. Runs well but base running instincts are not great.

Melvin Walton

JuCo sophomore from Central Arizona. Speed can be a difference maker. Patient hitter who works the count and makes outstanding contact. Does not hit for power, but has the skills to be an outstanding leadoff man.

Ted Beck

College senior from Kentucky.  A lefty batter, Beck has plus speed, good power potential, and excellent range in the field.  If he can make consistent contact should be a front line player.

Jake Boyd

College junior from Texas Tech. Instinctive shortstop with a nose for the ball. Plus speed, will work the count, and could be a reliable hitter at the bottom of the lineup.

Erik Clarke

Excellent defensive shortstop despite below average speed. Compact, clean swing with a knack for barreling the ball. Sprays the ball all over the field.

Rodney Gaston

Superior defender with plus pure speed. Bat is below average.

Michael Hopkins

College senior from Clemson. Has plus power potential in a lefty bat.  Good speed, solid defensive skills. Good recognition of balls and strikes. Has a chance to be a star caliber shortstop.

Ken Taylor

College junior at Oklahoma state.  Well above average speed with some power potential. As he matures is expected to be a quality defensive shortstop.

Alec Welty

College junior from Arizona, well above average defender who can fly on the basepaths. Good knack for hitting with a clean, compact swing.

Draft Preview - Third base

Sean Paul

College senior from Washington state. Paul has excellent defensive abilities, most notably a strong arm. He has significant upside once he taps his power potential.  A solid all around hitter who controls the strike zone. He is a below average runner.

Alex Alonso

A lefty batter from Oklahoma state, Alex is a good runner with above average power potential despite a small frame.  He's patient at the plate, but sometimes lets too many good pitches go by and has trouble making contact. He's a smart kid who will graduate in only 3 years with a degree in sports management.

Mike Chapman

A JuCo sophomore from Feather River.  Outstanding defensive abilities with an 80 grade arm. Not a fast runner, and his offensive potential is average at best.

Carlos DeJesus

Excellent defender with a strong arm, he has well above average power potential from the left side of the plate.  Will take a walk, but swing is long and trouble making contact.  A solid runner who hustles on the field.

Cody Everett

JuCo sophomore, steady glove at third base, pure speed is a plus. Does a good job of working the count but his bat is below average.


Draft Preview - Second base

Bruce Long

A college junior at Tennessee, Long read a book as a freshman that changed his life - Winning, The Only Thing I Know, by Eddie Bird.  Long dedicated his life to playing winning baseball, and he spend hours watching YouTube highlights from the 1990s Utah Utes, and whatever he could find of Eddie Bird's career.

Like Eddie, long is a second baseman who controls the strike zone and focuses more on power than batting average.  With quick wrists, he has above average power potential. He's an outstanding baserunner, a fast player who reads pitchers well and is a constant base stealing threat. In his junior season he was successful on 31 of 32 attempts.

Unlike Eddie, he's a right handed batter - kind of like Eddie's nephew Ricky Buckley.  He has good range in the field, but a well below average arm limits him to second base. Long is expected to be taken early in the first round.

Terry Baker

A junior at Virginia, Baker is a line drive hitter who makes good contact but lacks power.  He is a good base runner with solid range in the field, but has a below average arm.  He doesn't take a lot of pitches but tries to put the ball in play.

Dave Cunningham

A junior college freshman, Dave has good bat speed and strong athleticism.  He can play solid defense at multiple infield positions and could be a good utility man.  His power is below average and he does not project as a big offensive threat.

Jason Fuller
College senior at Notre Dame, Fuller has good instincts with the glove and grades out as an above average runner.  He's patient and will take a walk, but a below average hitter.

Mike Jenkins

College senior at coastal Carolina. Has improving pitch recognition and makes consistent contact. Average speed but good base running instincts.  He's a solid defender.  Generously listed at 5'9, he does not hit with any power.

Les Ladner

Junior college sophomore at Santa Barbara City. Strong defensively, a fast runner. Only 5'9 but has surprising power.  His constant hustle should get him chances to play at the next level.






Draft Preview - first base

Jason Lynch

A slow, right-handed slugger, playing high school ball in Colorado.  He can hit the ball a ton, but isn't very selective at the plate and his defense needs a lot of work.

Ryan Patterson

A college senior from Washington, Patterson is a good all around hitter without a single plus tool. Has a good understanding of the strike zone and enough power to be dangerous.  Defensively, he is limited to first base.

Bartolo Salcido

College senior at San Jose state, Salcido hits with his hands, stays inside the ball, and works it up the middle.  He has above average power potential, but limited in the field and on the bases.

Saturday, May 09, 2020

Draft Preview - Catchers

Dave Roberts

High schooler from Dallas, Roberts has a great feel for the strike zone and knows when to lay off bad pitches.  He hits the ball with authority, above average power. He's an athletic catcher with an average arm.

Brian Joyce

Joyce has above average power and will take a walk but has trouble making contact.  He works well with pitchers but his arm is below average.

Clarence Aguilar

A high schooler from Alabama, he hits with tremendous power but is never going to hit for a high average. His arm is below average but he blocks and receives well.

Geoffrey Hertz

Tremendous power and will take a walk. Takes too many pitches looking for the perfect pitch to drive, and does not protect the plate well with two strikes.  His defense at catcher is well below average.

Bob Matheson

He's got a quick bat and above average power potential. Has drawn good reviews for his all around catcher defense, and has an above average throwing arm.

Vic Talley

Lean and athletic, Talley runs well for a catcher.  Doesn't swing at bad pitches and has some offensive potential. Has a chance to be a solid average defender.

Draft Preview - Bullpen

Ed Goode

Goode gives it all he has for one inning at a time and has both a 99 MPH fastball and a sharp breaking slider.  He quickly runs out of gas if asked to pitch more than an inning.  His control is shaky but could be average.

Jon Henderson

Henderson started for Arizona, and struck out 19.2 batters per 9 innings.  While he is durable, his control problems and lack of a breaking ball mean his future will be in the bullpen.  He throws a triple digit fastball and an excellent circle change.  The combination reminds some of Fernando Rodney.

Jeff Montes

Montes also combines a top of the line (100 MPH) fastball with an excellent change.  He was used as a closer at USC, and his stuff quickly falls off if asked to pitch more than an inning or two.  His control is very good and Montes should be able to post excellent strikeout to walk ratios, similar to Chicago reliever Ralph Everett.

Sam Sherborne

Pitching for Fresno State, Sam struck out 18.7 batters per 9 innings with an upper 90s fastball and devastating slider.  His lack of a third pitch means his future is in the bullpen.

Clement Ruffin

A fastball/slider guy, Ruffin throws up to 100 MPH from a sidearm delivery.  He frequently hits lefthanded batters with a slider that seems to start in the right handed batter's box.

Draft Preview - Left-handed starters

Bill Dooley

A high schooler from the mountains of central Maryland, Dooley throws 4 above average pitches - a fastball, slider, curve, and change.  He maintains his low to mid 90s velocity deep into games, His changeup is inconsistent but potentially his best pitch.

Bob Grant

Grant throws an upper 90s fastball and gets swings and misses with his splitter.  He'll need to improve his command and develop his curve ball to stick as a starter.

Doug Harper

Only 5-10 and 170, Harper reminds some of Ron Guidry with a mid 90s fastball and sharp breaking slider.  He's a high school senior from Missouri. If he can improve his control, he should be a top of the rotation pitcher.

Matt Miller

A senior at Columbia University, where W. Gehrig Bear once played, Miller throws in the mid to upper 90s and has two more above average pitches with a slider and splitter.

Ernest Stevens

A 6-4 Texan, Stevens throws an upper 90s fastball and does not tire in the late innings. His curve and splitter are above average pitches, though he will need to improve his control.

Emmanuel Bianchi

He throws in the upper 90s and has a good curveball. His funky mechanics makes it hard for hitters to have comfortable at bats, but also lead to control problems.

Draft Preview - Right Handed Starting Pitchers

In less than a month, teams will select players in the 2020 OOTP draft.  Philadelphia holds the #1 pick after a 116 loss season in 2019.  Phoenix, Los Angeles, Orlando, and Hawaii will follow with the next four picks.

Here are the top rated right-handed starting pitcher prospects:

Brandon Manley

He's not imposing at 6 feet even, but is a legit power pitcher who can reach 99 MPH and also has a wipeout slider and outstanding changeup.  Manley is athletic, fields his position well and can hold runners.  He has good command of 3 elite pitches and should soon be a top of the rotation starter.

Ken Caffey

A junior at Clemons, Caffey throws a fastball in the upper 90s, an excellent slider, and a very good splitter.  He's strong and able to maintain his stuff deep into games.

Dan Phillips

A junior at USC, Phillips has hit 100 MPH with his fastball, which he throws with great sink down in the zone.  His slider is also above average.  He'll need to improve his changeup to stick as a starter.

Cristobal Cruz

Only 19, Cruz is a 6-6 junior college pitcher from Texarkana.  He's got the makings of a very good curve. His fastball is in the low to mid 90s.

Javier Munoz

Munoz has a live fastball clocked up to 100 MPH from a sidearm delivery.  He's still working on his secondary pitchers, which include a slider, change, and forkball.  His fastball is tough to square up and produces lots of ground balls.

Jake Price

A 17-year-old high schooler from Massachusetts, Price throws a sinking fastball in the low 90s along with a good curve and splitter.  He throws strikes and keeps the ball on the ground.

Malcolm Sherman

A college senior at Oregon State, Sherman can hit 100 MPH, along with a high spin curveball.  His stuff is overpowering although his command is still coming around.  His changeup is still developing but has a chance to be a third average pitch.

Kelala Taree

A college senior, he's already 23 years old.  Throws in the upper 90s along with a very good slider.  He's working on improving a curve and change. Taree keeps the ball on the ground and throws strikes.

Arturo Arrojo

A strong , 6-6 power pitcher, Arrojo throws in the upper 90s with excellent movement on his fastball.  His curve and slider both show promise, and he's tried several types of off speed pitches, including a forkball, circle change, and straight change.

Scott Cameron

A 19 year old junior college pitcher, Cameron's stuff is ordinary but his command is outstanding.  He throws a cut fastball in the low 90s, a curve, and spliiter.  His ability to throw strikes makes him stand out.

Jeffrey Curry

The grandson of Hall of Famer Dan Curry, Jeffrey is an imposing 6-7, 235 pounds and can reach triple digits.  He has a good slider and a forkball that drops off the table, a pitch his grandfather learned back in the mid 1980's. If he can improve his control, Curry could be an ace.

Lloyd Gobert

A short (5-11) right-hander from Vancouver, his teammates call him horce-face. He throws a mid 90s fastball, a wipeout slider, and a very good forkball.

Jose Perez

A big (6-4, 220) righty from North Carolina, Perez throws an upper 90s fastball with both a curve and change that have a chance to be above average pitches. He fields his position well and has the stamina to pitch deep into games.