Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Major League Opening Day 2009

Play Ball!

St. Louis 1 Florida 0 - This year, the first game of the year was played in Florida, and featured a 1-0 pitchers duel between St. Louis' Javier Mercedes, and Florida's George White. In the 3rd inning, Dennis Affleck (not related to the actor Ben, but the famous Duck) singled home Cody Fett (or at least someone who looked like Cody Fett). Florida comes up on the wrong end of this one, but George White looked great going 8-4-1-1-2-9 in the loss. Mercedes goes 8-4-0-0-3-9 and Papelbrad notched the save. No steals for Kenny Jr., but Conn went 1-3 with a walk and a steal.

New York 5 Hawaii 4 - New York gets HR's for Chad White, Manfred Mueller, Roy Brown, and 3 hits and 2 steals from Ricky Buckley to get the win. Hawaii's offense was provided on one swing of the bat with a homerun from Charlie Howard. Pedro gets the win, going 6-6-4-4-4-8 and Benser picks up the 1 out save, after Rudiger Rocker did the heavy lifting, getting 5 outs against a heavily left-handed Hawaii lineup.

Denver 3 Toronto 2 - Danny Almonte strikes out 14 in 7 innings but gets a no-decision. Gaedel has 3 hits, scores 2 runs, and new closer Paul Williamson slams the door in the 9th.

Bay Area 5 Philadelphia 2 - Bill Herrera homers for Bay Area and Fred Lewis knocks in 2 with a pair of doubles to help Brian Curtis get the win (8-6-2-2-1-2). The Philly offense comes on solo homers by Bulger and Foreman.

Hollywood 9 Green Day 6 - Green Day gets off to a 6-2 lead in the 6th, behind Jek Lewis' 2 hits and stolen base, but the bullpen blows up in the 7th and 8th innings (Peterson and starter/reliever Jim Farmer). Miguel Tejawa and Jim Koons homer late in the game to give Hollywood a comfortable opening day victory. Mark my words: A jawa shortstop will be the MVP this year (that should give me about 4 legitimate chances between the two leagues).

Los Angeles 4 Detroit 1 - Reigning triple crown and MVP Hank Crowell hits a homer as does Alphonso Soprano, and David Mulder cruises to victory going 7-6-1-1-1-6. Randy Wagner notches the save.

Portland 1 Alaska 0 - Another great pitching matchup, this time between a pair of future HOF's with quite a collection of Cy Youngs. Of course, this is Roger and Jojo Lewis (no relation). Roger gets the better of Jojo courtesy of an 8th inning solo homerun from new multi-million dollar shortstop Luciano Cedeno. Roger gets the win, going 8-7-0-0-4-8, and Jetstorm gets the save. Jojo goes 7-5-0-0-1-8 and gets a no-decision. New closer Luther Trautwein gets the loss, going 2 innings in a non-save situation. Why is it that some closers can't pitch in tie games?

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Major League East Preview

The first in a 3 part series forecasting the Major League's Divisions:

Predicted order of finish:
New York 100-62
Philadelphia 88-74
Florida 81-81
Toronto 68-94

New York: No surprise here in picking them to win the division. Most people thought New York had a poor offseason last year, since they didn't add much big name talent to their team. While thats true to some degree when compared to their own track record, whats lost in the shuffle is that this New York team should be better than last year's version. Here's my position by position comparison between the 2008 and 2009 versions of the team:

Catcher. The signing off Gonk Droid to replace Justin Lewis gives the 2009 team better offense, and better platoon flexibility. Edge 2009.

First Base: Manfred Mueller resigned. I'll call this a push, since Mueller is in his prime, and isn't expected to improve or decline significantly. They did sign Glen Porter to play against the tougher right-handed pitching, and he replaces Harry Henderson, so this is a slight upgrade.

Second Base: Ricky Buckley is back for his 3rd year as the starter. He seems to improve each year to some degree, so I like the '09 version better than the '08 version.

Third Base: Last year, New York platooned Tim Griffin, Jerrod Smith, and Dallas Knight Jr. All three return this year, and our joined by future HOF Mahatma Russell. I like the '09 version better as Mahatma will play full time against RHs while lefty killer Jerrod Smith will get the lefties. Tim Griffin is still expected to get 250-300 AB's at third base and the outfield.

Shortstop: Brett Solo won the 2007 MVP, and had a mildly disappointing season last year. Still, he is in his prime and is probably the leading candidate for MVP every season for a variety of reasons. Lets call this a push.

Left field: Last year, New York brought in Jason Foster as they believed they needed to get more people on base to compete with Utah. They won the title, but Foster continued the slow decline to his great career. Choosing not to spend the $15 million on a multi-year deal to bring him back, New York traded for former centerfielder Roy Brown. Brown doesn't put the numbers on the scoreboard that Foster did, but is probably the better all around player. At this stage of their careers, the only advantage Foster has over Brown is in on base percentage. Given that Foster is a DH playing the outfield, can't play every day, and is as slow as molasses, Brown is a slight upgrade. New York will also work Tim Griffin into this position to keep both players sharp and fresh.

Centerfield: Chad is still Chad in his prime. Another guy who could win an MVP some day. Call this a push. P.S. He dominated in spring training, and if its possible, seems to be showing more speed and range in the outfield. He's no Andrew Jones.

Rightfield: Keith Lee is coming off some down years for him, especially when you compare them to his great 2006 season. Still, he is in his prime and should be at least as good as he was last year, and he has room to improve to get back to his career norms. Call this a push.

Bench: Tim Griffin, Jerrod Smith, Paul Hagan, and Dallas Knight Jr. return, and are joined by Jimmy Urbano in the middle infield role, and Glen Porter to be the lefty 1B, pinch hitter, and DH in the World Series role. In addition, they also signed Conan to be a veteran leader and RH DH in the World Series. You gotta love this bench, and the confidence of the owner to spend money on the DH position even though it may only come in to play in 3 games this October. Advantage to this year's team.

Rotation: Pedro, Mazdahonda, Coppolla, Pierce, and Dan Johnston all return from last year's team. All in all, I'd say these 5 are good bets to repeat their success, although collectively, they may be a little bit less than last year. The key is that there is no midseason return and Cy Young performance from Roger Chllingworth in the cards. I have to say that this years rotation is not as good as last years, but Eddie has always said he doesn't need to have dominant power pitching to win big. He just needs winners. In that regard, Coppolla is still a nice #3 starter, and Brad Pearce could continue to make strides to eventually replace him.

Bullpen: Should be about the same as last year which was good. They have lots of good arms, and in Benser and Rocker, have probably the best righty/lefty power arms in the pen in the game. We will call this a push.

So there you have it. On offense and on the mound, they are either the same or better at all positions, with the only significant loss being Roger Chillingworth. Who knows, maybe if they need to make another move at mid-season, they will trade for someone like Don Law.

Philadelphia - This team has made the playoffs two straight years and is poised to do so again. They have almost as good a front 4 pitching staff as New York, with Zito, Oswalt, Baker, and Savage. Their #5 starter, Kyle Bonderman shows a remarkable ability to keep the ball in the ballpark and could be a nice surprise this year. He is better than New York's #5.

On offense, this team is pretty solid too. Bulger at Catcher is better than Gonk Droid, Paul White is better than Manfred at first, and Jimmy Taylor is almost as good as Buckley at second. Taylor also has actually had a great season to his credit, rather than just the potential of Buckley. Ruiz is no where near as good as Solo, but at least he can field at the gold glove level. At third base, Chavez is better than New York's trio of options. In the outfield, Foreman is just as good as Brown in left field. As great as Chad White is, Philly fans would not trade their hometown favorite Rocky Balboni straight up for him. And for good reason. Balboni can run and field at Chad White's level, and is coming off a better offensive season as well. In right field, Corey Sloan is no where near as good as Keith Lee, but he still puts runs on the scoreboard.

When I compare these two teams, I think Philly's slight edges around the infield and at catcher give them the better team 1-7 than New York. However, New York's huge advantage at shortstop puts them over the top. In the bullpen, there is no comparison between these two, and that might make the difference if they ever met in the post-season. Basically, Philadelphia has to hope their starters can go 7 or 8 innings to win in the post-season. You can win one or two games that way, buts its tough to win a best of 7 series this way.

Florida - This seemingly rebuilding team forever (at least the last few years) will finally showcase their great minor league system this year. On offense, #1 overall pick Conn the Barbarian should be fun to watch, and Kenny Jr. wants to break his father's stolen base record. Gerald White Jr. is also another fun young player who is entering the prime of his career.

On the mound, they have three great young pitchers who should anchor this team for the next several years. George White is ready to contend for a Cy Young, and two first round picks from the 2007 draft will finally make their long awaited debuts, Doug Guzman and Jesus Superion. Guzman is a solid pitcher who can keep the ball in the ball park and should make an immediate impact. Superion is as wild as they come, but he has been successful with his stuff in the minor leagues.

Realistically, this team is one year away from taking over 2nd place in this division. They still have too many easy outs in the lineup (Bartee, Hill, Kenny Jr.) and Conn will only be able to play about 110-120 games this year, as he needs to improve his stamina in the off-season. The bullpen is also a rag-tag collection of arms that was assembled for one purpose: eat innings and don't worry about effectiveness. Once the young players get a little bit better, perhaps the ownership group will sign a legitimate #4 starter, add two or three arms in the bullpen, and find a decent replacement for Kimba Bartee in CF. If I were running this team, I would have dropped Bartee to the bench, put Kenny in CF, Conn in LF, and kept Jason Gonzalez. In this day and age, its just too tough to win with two outfielders not contributing except for their speed and defense.

Toronto - This team is destined for 3rd or 4th place and they know it. At least things are looking up with the addition of #2 overall pick, catcher Jesus Valdez. Even though they won't contend this year, Valdez is too good to be wasted in the minors and he could be the favorite to win the rookie of the year award. They are also looking to get some playing time for their outfield of the future Enrique Rapada and Landon Davis. They will also bring up future ace Jean-Luc Lewis to be the #4 starter.

Stay tuned for the Central Division Preview.